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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.