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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."